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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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