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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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Showing 1536 to 1540 news of total 6871 |
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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