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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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Showing 1526 to 1530 news of total 6871 |
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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