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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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Showing 1516 to 1520 news of total 6871 |
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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