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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 29 December 18
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT PRODUCTION OF THE ORIGINAL BILL OF LADING - TT CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
As the bill of lading is a document of title, a person presenting it to the carrier or its agent is ostensibly entitled t ...
Friday, 28 December 18
BIMCO 2020 SULPHUR CLAUSES: "A FAIR ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES AND LIABILITIES'? - INCE & CO.
To assist owners and charterers to address the legal issues arising under any time charterparties, which will span the 1 January 2020 implementatio ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
DRY BULKERS SPOT FREIGHT MARKET W/E 21 DEC - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Capesize
A negative week for the Capesize sector, as activity remained at low levels, especially in the Pacific, with rumors regarding agreed r ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full ...
Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
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Showing 1511 to 1515 news of total 6871 |
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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