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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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