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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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Showing 1496 to 1500 news of total 6871 |
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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