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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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