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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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