We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
|
|
|
Showing 1481 to 1485 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
|
| |
| |
|
