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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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