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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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