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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Showing 1456 to 1460 news of total 6871 |
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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