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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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Showing 1451 to 1455 news of total 6871 |
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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