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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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Showing 1441 to 1445 news of total 6871 |
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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