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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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Showing 1436 to 1440 news of total 6871 |
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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