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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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Showing 1426 to 1430 news of total 6871 |
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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