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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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Showing 1416 to 1420 news of total 6871 |
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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