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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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