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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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