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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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Showing 1406 to 1410 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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