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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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Showing 1401 to 1405 news of total 6871 |
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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