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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
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Showing 1391 to 1395 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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