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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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