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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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