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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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Showing 1366 to 1370 news of total 6871 |
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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