We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
|
|
|
Showing 1371 to 1375 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
