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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
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Showing 1396 to 1400 news of total 6871 |
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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