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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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Showing 1421 to 1425 news of total 6871 |
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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