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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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Showing 1431 to 1435 news of total 6871 |
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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