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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
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Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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Showing 1446 to 1450 news of total 6871 |
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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