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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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