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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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