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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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