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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
BLOCKCHAIN CAN HAVE A TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Following the launch of a legal briefing on blockchain contracts from UK P&I Club, Claims Executive, Filip Koscieleck ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT DECLINES IN APRIL AMID DIVERSION TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - PTI
India’s coal import fell by 9 percent to 17.32 million tonnes (MT) in April on the back of ample supply of dry fuel from domestic sources.
...
Monday, 28 May 18
COAL SUPPLY DIVERSION IRKS INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON CAPTIVE POWER PLANTS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The government’s move to prioritise coal supplies to power plants with minimal coal stock has disrupted fuel supply to some sectors, which ha ...
Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
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Showing 1711 to 1715 news of total 6871 |
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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