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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 24 May 18
SUPRAS FIXING AROUND USD 15000 FOR INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Both the physical and the paper market have dropped sharply the last couple of days on the back of a lack of fresh cargoes and a growing ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
FITCH: FALLING COAL INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT ASIAN PRICES
Press Release: The long-term outlook for the Asian thermal coal prices is improving, amid rising regional demand and falling mining investment, whi ...
Thursday, 24 May 18
BEIJING ORDERS UTILITIES, MINERS TO HELP COOL RED-HOT COAL MARKET: SOURCES - REUTERS
China’s state planner ordered utilities this week to stop stockpiling thermal coal and told miners to slash prices, two sources familiar with ...
Wednesday, 23 May 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last six months we have seen more than 110 reported tanker transactions involving tonnage larger than 32k dwt and younger than 18 years old. ...
Friday, 18 May 18
AFTER COAL, INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PUSHES DMO ON GAS FOR ELECTRICITY
After introducing its domestic market obligation (DMO) policy for coal on March 12, the government is going forward with its plan to introduce a DM ...
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Showing 1716 to 1720 news of total 6871 |
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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