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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 07 May 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER ISSUED A TENDER FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
Monday, 07 May 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND ROSE ABOUT 1% IN 2017; ASIA ACCOUNTED FOR THE LARGEST INCREASE IN COAL DEMAND, UP 35 MTOE RELATIVE TO 2016 - IEA
Global coal demand rose about 1% in 2017, reversing the declining trend seen over the last two years. This growth was mainly due to demand in Asia, ...
Friday, 04 May 18
ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES WAS SECOND ONLY TO COAL IN 2017 - IEA
World electricity demand increased by 3.1 %, significantly higher than the overall increase in energy demand. Together, China and India accounted f ...
Thursday, 03 May 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO - CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE PAYING IN THE LOW-MID $12000 BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
As expected a slow and uneventful start to the week with holidays in many countries, however by mid-week some fresh requirements and pos ...
Tuesday, 01 May 18
SUPRAMAX: COAL RUNS, A 61,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SURABAYA, FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY INDIA AT $15,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates eased in the East, as the week closed out with the momentum slowing. Levels on the key West Australia/China run dropped to $7.25 ...
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Showing 1726 to 1730 news of total 6871 |
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
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