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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 25 April 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
We had the opportunity to be part of Intertanko's Hellenic Mediterranean Panel last week in the SNFCC and to present an outlook on the tanker f ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMPORTING INDONESIAN COAL MAKES SENSE FOR INDIAN COASTAL PLANTS EVEN WHEN IT IS COSTLIER THAN INDIAN - ECONOMIC TIMES
Rising Indonesian coal production and lower Chinese demand have pulled down Indonesian coal prices by 22% over the last 45 days, a trend that augur ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritim ...
Tuesday, 24 April 18
TWO 56K-DWT OPEN HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE WERE FIXED FOR INDONESIA COAL TRIPS TO CHINA, AT $9,500 AND $11,000 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week has seen the Cape 5 timecharter weighted average almost double. Similarly, the Brazil to China ore rates climbed over $4.50, f ...
Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
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Showing 1736 to 1740 news of total 6871 |
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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