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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
ALWAYS ACCESSIBLE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 26 March 2018 Mr Justice Knowles determined that the berth warranty ‘always accessible’ must mean the vess ...
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Showing 1741 to 1745 news of total 6871 |
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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