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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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Showing 1731 to 1735 news of total 6871 |
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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