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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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