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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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