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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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