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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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