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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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Showing 1336 to 1340 news of total 6871 |
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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