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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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Showing 1336 to 1340 news of total 6871 |
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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