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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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Showing 1326 to 1330 news of total 6871 |
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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