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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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