We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
|
|
|
Showing 1321 to 1325 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
