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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
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Showing 1341 to 1345 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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