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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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