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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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