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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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