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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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