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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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