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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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